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general discussion » Investing Thread v. 1.0

DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
13 years ago
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DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
DannyP, Asemi, and I have been getting into the same conversations regarding investing money with certain methods. I am no expert in this field, but I believe with the exchange of information on this thread we can really get some ideas flowing from the board members.

First off pay off all your Credit card debt. The interest rates on credit cards these days are horrendous! You'll want to aim somewhere between 6%-12% on an APR regarding credit cards, depending on credit. Now if you are REALLY desperate, you can do a balance transfer to a card that offers 0% APR for a certain amount of months. This is the best option since you are techincally just transferring the debt and buying yourself so much more time to pay off the balance without incurring interest. Interest Adds up, just watch the Futurama episode A Fishful of Dollars. :)

Saving is something that is really hard to do. If you are the type of person who never dips into savings(unless an emergency occurs), you should REALLY open a money market account. Money market accounts are basically savings accounts with high interest rates, with the only expense of being limited to the number of withdrawals you make per month(typically 3). This account is awesome. Get one immediately. I've seen money market rates as high as 6%.

Anymore suggestions?
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
Interesting post. I'm a portfolio analyst (tech media telecom) on a 22-member investing team at my university.

If you have more cash to allocate I have some great Canadian equity suggestions, otherwise, money market sounds good. Stay away from most mutual funds.
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
i'm not sure what you mean by a money market account.. but skip those and go for the mmda (money market deposit account). these are like hsbcdirect.com. they have no minimum balance, no limit on deposits/withdrawals, and get 5% to 6% typically, they are also fdic insured, unlike traditional money market accounts.

depending on your time horizon and your principle, you should jump into an index fund (djia/sp500/&c) or a no load mutual fund. i recommend scottrade.com for very nice, inexpensive online trading (min $500). if you're looking at investing money for 18+ months and have about $1000, i think trading is the way to go (depending on your risk aversion, of course).
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
> If you have more cash to allocate I have some great Canadian equity suggestions, otherwise, money market sounds good. Stay away from most mutual funds.

what do you suggest for equity? and why would you recommend against mutual funds? i know they aren't as magical as most people think, but they generally offer returns on par (if not slightly above) index funds.
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
13 years ago
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DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
^ Responding

FDIC insurance is only guaranteed up to $100,000. I plan to reach this before I'm 30 so that presents a problem in assets. Also, a lot of people do not like the risk of ruin and variance that is inherent to stock trading. For the conservative fiscal spender, I would buy bonds. You can get a lot of bonds lower than face value at a certain site on the internet. Upon date of maturity you can redeem for face value I believe. Also, I like risk, I gamble, so it's no different on the poker table than it is on the market. I'm looking to get into Forex trading, or option trading. Any good literature to read up on that? Also, a thread detailing Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis would be awesome.
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
Re: equity it depends on your desired risk. Cdn banks are generally a great buy dependent on price history. Higher risk Talisman Energy, Finning, Le Chateau.

I dislike funds for fees, gimmicky investing strategies. Good funds have great core competencies and superb histories.
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
13 years ago
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DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
I don't really like index funds. You have to invest A LOT of money in order to be above breaking even. Although it is a good way to achieve diversification in your portfolio.
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
My strategy for equities is value investing. Generally looking at EV/EBITDA and industry multiples, low debt/EBITDA, and strong FCF yield. However much is sector dependent. IMHO technical analysis for picks is sketchy.
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
> You have to invest A LOT of money in order to be above breaking even.

huh? why?

> I dislike funds for fees, gimmicky investing strategies. Good funds have great core competencies and superb histories.

yeah, i'd have to find a no-load that didn't make any grandiose claims and had a very good history with realistic returns.
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
> My strategy for equities is value investing.

afaik, that's what most firms look at.. value.

> IMHO technical analysis for picks is sketchy.

agreed, although perhaps something (though not much) can be said for mean reversion
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
there's a lot of growth investors out there. if you don't have access to research portals then its tough to do the comps.
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
r1, link
dannyp
dʎuuɐp
hey thanks for posting this gatz, here's the old thread on investing. My personal situation has changed a bit and I'm ready to shuffle some bags around!
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
oh by the way what research portals are you referring to nestor? Glad to see your back too, hope you can share some of your work experience with us!
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
> oh by the way what research portals are you referring to nestor?

probably commercial investment data (expensive shit)

one of my financial econ profs has access to one through his old school (wash u)
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
like online portal or what? There are plenty of really expensive publications that are out of reach for people regarding investing, but I'm just not sure if they're some of the same ones.
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
research of i-banks (personally i have access to ubs, cs, bear stearns, and all cdn banks) + research companies.
ozntz's avatar
13 years ago
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ozntz
toooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
what kind of investments are you trying to start 1, 5, 10 year , retirement?
For me most of my interest is in retirement atm. I contribute to a 403b but i'm interested in starting a IRA also
asemisldkfj's avatar
13 years ago
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asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
good thread!
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
13 years ago
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DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
ozntz: Your best bet is to do a 401k with the maximum input necessary to have your company match whatever contributions you are making. Watch the transferability of that. As for opening an IRA, Roth IRA's are a good retirement option as well.
ozntz's avatar
13 years ago
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ozntz
toooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
I'm already contributing more then the company match
 
13 years ago
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Trent
I currently have about 5 grand to throw into the market. I was thinking about just doing hsbcdirect.com thing. I won't need to touch this money for a while, any other suggestions? Good thread by the way.
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
how long is a while tp?
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
I just opened an hsbc direct account just now and dumped in some g's.
asemisldkfj's avatar
13 years ago
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asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
I might do the same.
asemisldkfj's avatar
13 years ago
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asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
also, if you don't need to touch the money for a while Trent, a certificate of deposit might be a good idea.
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
Nothing wrong with T-Bills and Treasury Notes. Check out treasury direct for info. You could also do an I savings Bond, or if you want long-term go for EE.

So who here does any trading? Like lr mentioned scottrade is decent.
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
i do trading in an organization...
asemisldkfj's avatar
13 years ago
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asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
I'm checking out t-bills right now. I need to get a new driver's license and open up a treasury direct account.
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp

i do trading in an organization...


sounds illegal ;)

nah I know what you mean, so any tips?

I'm going to open a treasury direct account right now too.
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
I opened the account but it has a hold on it because my identity is not verified..? As soon as the hold is off I'm buying a t-bill.
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
if you're going to be picking individual stocks try to get some quality research. or ask me and i'll pull down some targets and commentary if i have the time.
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
Could you break down some of the general research methods you use?

I took a few courses and learned a bit of fundamental and technical analysis. Mainly though, I'd be interested in methods non-conventional or stuff that maybe the textbook doesn't discuss. I know organizations that do this sort of thing are going to have greater access to corporate information and be able to know what exactly is going on in management, cutting through a bit of the cruft.
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
I operate in TMT - tech media telecom. We use some specialized measures like churn rate & average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) but mostly standard valuation measures borrowed from M&A types:

EV/EBITDA (LTM + forward 2 years... analyst research is key)
PEG ratio
P/EPS
Debt/EBITDA

Also there are quite a few income trusts in Canada even after the tax shakedown so we use some specialized metrics there too.
 
13 years ago
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Trent
I'm thinking about a year, I did take out a CD for this previous year, but since hsbc has almost the same rate of interest it might be the better route to go.
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
nestor, what's P/EPS for? Is this the same as forward price to earnings?

Also when calculating Debt/EBITDA, your goal is to find debt of a company in comparison to companies and/or across industries? also, are you considering LTM or longer, and do you project debt?

Thanks for your reply btw, this is all very interesting :)
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
We always use LTM and forward 2 years for all EBITDA metrics. I don't project debt, that's what analysts are for... :D The biggest calculation we do is options-in-the-money to find FDSO (fully diluted shares outstanding).

Personally all my institutional investments are in one industry (Tech, media, or telecom). Each sector has a different % of the total investment pot.

Haha, yeah, sorry, it is fwd. P/E. I was just scanning some of my slides.
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
Wow I have so much to learn ;) I'm glad I can figure out what you mean at least on a casual level.

Alright so I was on my quest today to get the best credit card deal possible. The problem I have is that I am trying to get checks for free from one of my banks but they haven't provided. I have to pay, and so I'm trying to find an alternative to chucking $25 for checks. So in my search I found out my bank, Washington Mutual has a new account offer that's outstanding compaired to my old account. The savings gives 5% APY whereas my old one gave me 0.25% (!!!!!!!!) the interest rate was also 0.25% and my new account gives me 4.89% interest. Not to mention free checks!

I'm pretty happy now :) So now I'm looking at credit cards. I'm thinking of either this USAA cash rewards card, or a WAMU platinum. The search is on! I really need to build my credit :o
ozntz's avatar
13 years ago
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ozntz
toooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
who the hell uses checks???? :)
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
how do you pay for your credit card?
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
web banking!

yay chartered banks!!
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
yeah, i pay online

the only time i ever use a check is to pay rent to my landlord
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=AV

wow google has upgraded their stuff!
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
if anyone has a bit of cash lying around a good play might be into BCE, canada's largest telco (think AT&T). it is currently involved in an LBO transaction with some big Cdn and US private equity players in a deal valued at $52b (largest LBO in history if it goes through). the deal is lined up to close in march/april and the spread between market and tender is widening, the arb opportunity is pretty huge. at current prices the return would be 11%, annualized return like around 40%.

i don't see a lot of risk in the transaction given a) all the loans are syndicated b) a ton of canadians are waiting to cash out on this with shares from like 1901 c) it doesn't really change the competitive landscape in any meaningful way for consumers.

the spread has basically been propagated by funds doing automated trading and people being mad. anyways arb trading is an interesting tactic for people like me who fiend m&a news.
asemisldkfj's avatar
13 years ago
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asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
I'm scared of the stock market.

I've been taking 50 USD/week out of my paycheck and putting it into savings. it's been working out well, I have over 500 USD in my savings now. once I get up around 1,000 I'm going to consider investing in something like T-Bills or a certificate of deposit. not sure yet.

oh, and I got my first credit card a few days ago :). time to build some credit!
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
i'm scared of the credit market :D

depending on where the market is it i would invest in an index fund over a t-bill
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
another good pick for those interested: rogers communications. both bce and rogers are listed on the nyse.

rogers recently got hammered by the decision to open canada's wireless market to more competition, but valuations show rogers is trading at a massive discount to its peers given the new competitive position. targets are in the $50-60 range implying large returns, catalyst will be aws auction in march. this is a riskier play but a strong one.
asemisldkfj's avatar
13 years ago
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asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
yeah I don't know what an index fund is. I'll research this more when I get closer to having enough :).
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
ugh i'm sorry if i'm insufferably financial

finance exam in a few days and banking recruiting season is on
phi_'s avatar
13 years ago
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phi_
... and let the Earth be silent after ye.
I want to hire one of you to invest my money...
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
dp stax bills (non debt variety).
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
finance exam tomorrow!
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
good luck!
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
i rocked it

but now i have a business modeling exam before i can go home!
dannyp's avatar
13 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
B)
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
there's nothing like knowing you have to pull an 86 on the final when you got 69 on the midterm to get an A in the class.
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
6 hours to freedom
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
13 years ago
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DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
I just told asemi what an index fund was.
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
word!
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
done! (until january)
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
sweet
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
r1, link
lucas
i ❤ demo
this post has been archived.
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
today i deposited a check into my checking account, and i forgot to endorse it. but the teller accepted it and gave me a receipt. what will happen? will the federal reserve branch reject it?

p.s. ref http://www.thinktankforums.com/thread.php?thread_id=207
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
13 years ago
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DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
Most likely the money will be deducted from your account and the check mailed back to you. I would call the bank right away though. Now if it was something like a paycheck or a personal check made out to you(not 3rd party), it'll most likely get stamped with a direct to deposit logo and nothing else will happen. What kind of check was it?
Chiken's avatar
13 years ago
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Chiken
Don't Let Your Walls Down
I never endorse my paychecks and they go through ok.
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
13 years ago
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DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
^ See my second statement.

It really depends on where the check came from.
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
what's a third party check?
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
have you guys seen www.mint.com ?

i tried it them deleted my account with them. i wasn't overly impressed.
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
well, the check that i deposited without an endorsement posted fully. so whatever.
asemisldkfj's avatar
13 years ago
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asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
me and a couple of roommates were talking about writing your account numbers under your signature when endorsing your checks. I never thought about it, but this means that anyone you cash a check from can see your account number, never mind anyone else who handles the check.

however, I read one some not credible website that it is legal for banks to require this. kind of lame. I might start not doing it, but I've had tellers tell me to do it before.
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
i think the depositing institution prints the routing and account number on the back anyway.
nestor's avatar
13 years ago
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nestor
nestor
some decent spending policy

http://www.kenrockwell.com/tech/how-to-afford-anything.htm
sriehl's avatar
13 years ago
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sriehl
surreal
asemisldkfj:
you'r account number is on the front of all the checks you write. Putting yours on the back just ensures that it goes to your account.
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
r1, link
lucas
i ❤ demo
this post has been archived.
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
nestor > some decent spending policy

i want to defecate on his face
lucas's avatar
13 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
aka fecalface.com
nestor's avatar
12 years ago
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nestor
nestor
i'm looking at the little google finance favicon and cringing

european economists are insanely pessimistic (perhaps for good reason)
asemisldkfj's avatar
12 years ago
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asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
I want to start investing some shit. kind of bad timing, eh?
nestor's avatar
12 years ago
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nestor
nestor
yep. invest in a business school education and become a restructuring banker.
nny's avatar
12 years ago
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nny
M̮͈̣̙̰̝̃̿̎̍ͬa͉̭̥͓ț̘ͯ̈́t̬̻͖̰̞͎ͤ̇ ̈̚J̹͎̿̾ȏ̞̫͈y̭̺ͭc̦̹̟̦̭̫͊̿ͩeͥ̌̾̓ͨ
invest in commodities.
lucas's avatar
12 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
> yep. invest in a business school education and become a restructuring banker.

haha
dannyp's avatar
12 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
Hi peoples. I'm building a little online portfolio on google finance, what companies do any of you guys look at?
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
12 years ago
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DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
JAVA ....
nestor's avatar
12 years ago
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nestor
nestor
The SEC banned shorting of financials? Weak.

The FSA came really close to doing this while I was working in the UK, I guess they finally did it last week.
nestor's avatar
12 years ago
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nestor
nestor
Fuck.
nestor's avatar
12 years ago
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nestor
nestor
What I meant to say was is:

a) the markets are awful;
b) I'm working on a presentation for the investment club I'm in and I don't think I'm going to sleep.
nestor's avatar
12 years ago
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nestor
nestor
Well as I said in another thread, I networked my way onto the investment club exec. It was pretty funny to see the guy that sent me the rejection letter come up to me and apologize for rejecting me after he found out that I worked in London in banking, haha.

I'll give ttf some context because I'm going to be thinking about investing a lot in the next 18 months and I'll probably be posting on this topic more.

I'm one of two analysts in charge of the TMT (Tech, Media, Telecom) portfolio, covering both Canada and the US. The fund totals about $120-$130k. This is different than my previous investing experience because I used to just cover Canadian equities... should be interesting to see what's going on south of the border.
Fsmart's avatar
12 years ago
r1, link
Fsmart
haha, that's great. I can imagine a group of green school boys who have a bunch of ideas about how to run a business rejecting someone who was actually working in the field :)

please keep us updated on what you learn. I have about $8.5k just sitting around in the a Charles Schwab checking account with a 1.7% APR that I would like to put in some choice places if you have any advise. I know the market is grim right now, but doesn't that mean there is considerable potential upward growth potential? (of course considerable downward risk as well)

ideally I would like to keep the money somewhat secure, but I would not say that I am very risk adverse. frankly, it is not a lot of money and if i am just going to receive a return of 4% from a CD then as far as I see it I am probably loosing money since current inflation is about 5% plus I would have to pay taxes on whatever I earn.

so I am thinking of rather than holding onto money that is only loosing value maybe it would be better to just pay off my student loans. on the other hand interest paid on my student loans is tax deductable. if I had earnings rate equal to the interest rate or greater of my student loans (~5%) then it might not be a bad idea to invest and divert some of my earnings to pay off my student loan interest.

as far as my eagerness to invest. i am pretty willing right now. I would like to be sure that I wouldn't face the possibility of loosing more than 5 of the 8.5 but if worse came to worse I would be fine with having 3k left of my saving to draw on if i needed it. the way I see it right now is that 8.5k is really not that much compared to future expected earnings and with it expected future investments, so i would like to learn about good investment mechanisms so that when i have more money to invest in the future i am not so heavily reliant upon strangers. it is not like i am planning on retiring with this money.

oh and gatz you said something about the FDIC only insuring up to 100k. i think they just bumped that up to 250k and i also think that the FDIC is willing to insure that much money for each patron at each different bank conglomerate. you have to be careful because often different banks are considered the same but i think there are up to 7 different banks available. but if you are really concerned then you might just want to open an account in britian or a european country that also has a federal government that insures depositors. that way you are at least diversifying against currency fluctuation risk associated with having all of your money in one country as well as hedging against the possibility of complete federal government collapse. :) however unlikely that may be.
 
12 years ago
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Trent
good goals and reality of money, glad to see someone who is willing to take some risk to gain reward. I put 3000 in mutual funds about a year ago to try em out and I needed the money now and lost about $500. So my advice, do what you want with your money as far as stocks go, do your research and get in contact with someone who knows what they are talking about. There will be tons of money to be made on the up swing. Heck even on the down-swing, short trades. I was just unhappy that I turned money over to edward jones and hoped it would turn a profit without any real knowledge of the funds they had me investing in. Just my two cents, good luck
 
12 years ago
r4, link
tc
What do you guys think about eTrades(NASDAQ:ETFC) future right now? I think its trip into sub-primes was so minimal that it won't affect them long term. They are looking at taking advantage of the federal bailout, but the chance of them getting help I believe is very slim. Additionally they posted red for the past quarter, which could have been expected from the slow in trade and lack of confidence in the market.

By one year's time I think they will be pulling their price up from the $1.60 average minimum they are at now. I think that their base trading platform is their strong point and will pull the company through the bad times. They sold off all the FNMAES and FRDMACS to help relieve the losses the company was going to post this last quarter. Additionally they were about .20 per share less than what analysts expected.

Short term I believe that they will drop at least $.2 to .4 more in the next few days. But then could just stay idle for a while. During that idle time I think I will try and pick up a few shares if I find some money laying around.



Hey Lr have you thought about starting up a new section for investing since you got a nice crowd of eager money baggers here?

You guys might want to check out http://www.updown.com/ a cool little investing game that gives you 1 mil. to throw around however you like. You can play games win some sweet cash.
lucas's avatar
12 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
> Hey Lr have you thought about starting up a new section for investing since you got a nice crowd of eager money baggers here?

no, i haven't thought about it.. but if more threads pop up about investing, it'd be a good idea! :D
nestor's avatar
12 years ago
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nestor
nestor
i'm doing a presentation on valuation multiples to 150 people in 25 minutes!
nestor's avatar
12 years ago
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nestor
nestor
THE TAO OF ALPHA
http://omploader.org/vMWRmaw

or: why active individual investing that achieves higher risk-adjusted return than the market is impossible.
lucas's avatar
12 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
:)

here we call "alpha" "beta-not".
nestor's avatar
12 years ago
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nestor
nestor
beta investing ftw
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
12 years ago
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DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
Ouch ... economy is dead. It's a conspiracy set to remove 50% of the world's wealth.

-Infowars
asemisldkfj's avatar
12 years ago
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asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
hahaha, I haven't heard the name infowars in a long time.
 
12 years ago
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tc
The price of silicon just dropped by $150/kg today. I am thinking about picking up some tech stocks in the renewable energy sector such as First Solar and Energy Conv. Devices. Their price has been dropping due to the inventory priced at the previous silicon prices, but I don't think it will be long before they see a nice steady pop in their valuation.

FSLR
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ :FSLR
ENER
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AENER
lucas's avatar
11 years ago
r3, link
lucas
i ❤ demo
it's a great time to borrow!

my capital one apr is down to 8.33% on purchases and cash. that's a 1.53% premium on the federal student loan apr. pocket change!

my hsbc savings account is down to 1.65% apy. what a joke. i just withdrew all of my funds. i'm closing that account. it's not worth my time!
Étrangère's avatar
11 years ago
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Étrangère
I am not a robot...
r3
Étrangère's avatar
11 years ago
link
Étrangère
I am not a robot...
what is hsbc?
lucas's avatar
11 years ago
r1, link
lucas
i ❤ demo
the world's largest bank
nestor's avatar
11 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
Hongkong shanghai bank of china

On that note, I start my internship in 40 mins
bluet's avatar
11 years ago
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bluet
nestor the intern! :D
lucas's avatar
11 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
hsbc is being a pain in the ass. they closed my account, and they also killed my online access so i cannot download the final statement.

so i called and asked them to send me the final statement. they said i have to mail them or fax them a request. :( so i asked them to send me the 1099-misc form. they said i have to wait until january then call back. :(
Fsmart's avatar
11 years ago
link
Fsmart
i have my money in First Arkansas Bank and Trust. i know, sounds pretty Monique, but they say they are going to give me 4.4% APR (payouts monthly, if I do 4 things) on my 'Kasasa Cash' checking account.
nestor's avatar
11 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
that is a scary APR on a checking account. maybe they are having capitalization issues and are desperately trying to limit withdrawals.
lucas's avatar
11 years ago
r1, link
lucas
i ❤ demo
yeah, that's absurd. my mmda was getting under 2% apy.

also, i got a closing statement from hsbc in the mail unexpectedly. :D
nestor's avatar
11 years ago
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nestor
nestor
since this thread basically hosts any thoughts on finance (in general) i have, i'm going to put this here

any of you econ students have an opinion on the controversy over high frequency trading/flash orders/dark pools/other opaquing market practices
lucas's avatar
11 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
i don't know anything about those topics
 
11 years ago
link
arun
keep smiling !
http://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/ .

Try his book, really simple and good advice unlike other finance management books.
lucas's avatar
11 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
nestor, how's the garbage strike in toronto? i hear today it's especially foul smelling because of the heat.
nestor's avatar
11 years ago
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nestor
nestor
i noticed the smell last night, didn't today.

the strike is actually over from what i know, but i suppose it's a few more days until everything actually gets cleaned up.
phi_'s avatar
11 years ago
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phi_
... and let the Earth be silent after ye.
Man, I wish we were all pro-union down here. I miss out on strikes and so on... :(
nestor's avatar
11 years ago
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nestor
nestor
as the two economies de-unionized canada ended up keeping a lot more unions, probably due to the relative importance of the automotive and public sectors in our economy
nestor's avatar
11 years ago
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nestor
nestor
i was seriously considering doing labour relations over finance a while ago.
asemisldkfj's avatar
11 years ago
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asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
what happened?
nestor's avatar
11 years ago
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nestor
nestor
i realized it probably didn't suit my strengths

and it's a dying industry, even here in canada.
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
11 years ago
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DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
Bringing this up again. Calling on Nestor ... any good tips for now?
lucas's avatar
11 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
it's a good time to be a consumer. buy durable goods.
nestor's avatar
11 years ago
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nestor
nestor
what are you looking for in terms of recommendations - individual securities or broader themes?
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
11 years ago
link
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
anything man. I have a bit of cash that is just sitting in a savings account. Even with the highest APY percentages, I'm not going to get bigger than 2% on my money. I was thinking about gambling and hitting the stock market. I have about 5k, not much, but I want to see if I can at least get a return on my money that would be larger than 100 bucks.
nestor's avatar
11 years ago
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nestor
nestor
http://westerninvestmentclub.com/files/presen … y-AEPI.ppt

here's a link to a presentation I did a few weeks ago on a company called AEP Industries.
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
11 years ago
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DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
Reading now Nestor. You should resurrect this thread.
Fsmart's avatar
11 years ago
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Fsmart
I have 6k in the stockmarket right now. I am planning on moving another 2k in the next few weeks and probably another 2k by the end of the year. i am gambling. none of the crazy penny stocks or anything like that but mostly a handful of 1k large equity purchases in businesses that i expect to still exist in 4-5 years when I want my money back. any stock suggestions?
dannyp's avatar
11 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
what is your methodology FSMART?
Fsmart's avatar
11 years ago
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Fsmart
AEPI seems overvalued compared with historic prices but is that fundamentally flawed logic?
nestor's avatar
11 years ago
r2, link
nestor
nestor
yes

i suppose i should elaborate.

the operating nature and capital structure of the business have changed markedly over the last two years, leading to a great increase in the earnings and cash flow generation of the business.
 
11 years ago
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tc
Nestor would you mind posting some statistics on your performance? Some ideas about how you would build your optimal portfolio etc. I think many of us are pretty curious about this.
nny's avatar
11 years ago
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nny
M̮͈̣̙̰̝̃̿̎̍ͬa͉̭̥͓ț̘ͯ̈́t̬̻͖̰̞͎ͤ̇ ̈̚J̹͎̿̾ȏ̞̫͈y̭̺ͭc̦̹̟̦̭̫͊̿ͩeͥ̌̾̓ͨ
Personally I suggest forming a small militia and using it to enforce your will on the local populace.
nestor's avatar
11 years ago
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nestor
nestor
I don't have an active portfolio personally, I don't have enough excess capital and time to make active management worthwhile. My current club isn't especially concerned with their returns as they do a lot of questionable buys just for education's sake, but my previous club was founded in fall 2003 and has outperformed a 25% bond / 75% equity benchmark by about 30% in that time, with an absolute return of 70% in the period.

I don't believe that active management makes sense for the vast majority of individual investors, in that there are high costs - transaction costs and your time. Then again I also don't believe giving your money to active managers makes a lot of sense, so long as you only have enough capital to deploy to give it away to mutual fund managers who for various reasons are rather poor performers too (or just expensive ways to go long the market). Index ETFs are probably the best way to go.

If you are an active individual investor I believe the *only* way to earn excess returns is through an extremely rigorous and informed value strategy. Finding undervalued securities with a large margin of safety is a challenge but is certainly possible, as evidenced by numerous highly successful hedge funds which have this mandate and which have posted stellar absolute returns in every market.
 
11 years ago
r1, link
tc
A 25% bond is crazy.

oh i get it now haha silly me
nestor's avatar
11 years ago
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nestor
nestor
25% bond weighting?
Fsmart's avatar
11 years ago
link
Fsmart
hmm, so lining up a bunch of companies on a dart board and buying whatever stocks are hit might not be a good strategy?
nestor's avatar
11 years ago
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nestor
nestor
> Index ETFs are probably the best way to go

selected based on your risk tolerance. e.g. small cap equities will earn you a higher return, but have more volatility...
 
11 years ago
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tc
If I had money to burn and was looking at having a 2-3 year position CBC would be my choice.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=CBC
 
10 years ago
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bobc
why does that seem to happen on this forum:) ? someone recommends a particular stock and then it falls through the floor :) anyways, can't complain, since entering the market in may I have made a 16% return which is probably worse than the s&p 500 and just based on stocks on a dartboard, but heck. it sure make me feel good.
lucas's avatar
10 years ago
link
lucas
i ❤ demo
isn't it 132%?

current INX = 1256
may high = 946

1256/946 = 132%

i didn't know that shit is blowing up like that
lucas's avatar
10 years ago
link
lucas
i ❤ demo
and CBC between feb 26 and now has lost 78%. :/
Carpetsmoker's avatar
10 years ago
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Carpetsmoker
Martin
They went from $47 in Dec 2007 to $0.45 in Dec 2010.
Carpetsmoker's avatar
10 years ago
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Carpetsmoker
Martin
http://www.capitolbancorp.com/press/release_2010_12_06.pdf

Haha, I think you would be hard pressed for a worse candidate ...
lucas's avatar
10 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
time for a reverse stock split!
dannyp's avatar
9 years ago
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dannyp
dʎuuɐp
Hi guys, have you seen or considered something like this? http://www.lendingclub.com/

I have a friend that's testing the waters. Just wanted some opinions!
lucas's avatar
9 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
seems cool, but i need more liquidity at the moment. i don't want to try trading their notes, either.
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
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nestor
nestor
bought 40 shares of GYRO today @ $65.00, my price target is ~$130.
andre's avatar
9 years ago
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andre
I think my strategy for technical analysis will be to bet on the opposite of what I think will happen.
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
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nestor
nestor
goal: deploy $30 - 50k into cheap assets in the next 6 months.

at this time my best idea is still GYRO. looking hard at MSFT - whatever we believe about their products and services, they are a fantastic cash generator and investors (e.g. einhorn) are starting to agitate for change there. cash should be going back to shareholders instead of on building a war chest for acquisitions like skype.
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
opportunity: large producing gold mining companies have not participated in the significant increase in the gold price in the last few years.

issue: i don't want exposure to gold (or any other commodity, for that matter)

contemplating a trade going long on a portfolio of gold mining companies with low capital expenditure risk and hedge the spot gold risk by going short a physical gold ETF.

problems:
backtesting using data from recent years to determine the number of ETF shares to hedge isn't possible if the opportunity exists. will need discounted cash flow models of each gold company in the portfolio to determine the actual leverage each one should have to the gold price.
operating expenditure inflation is still unhedged. could add a physical oil ETF i suppose.
lucas's avatar
9 years ago
link
lucas
i ❤ demo
nestor is the best.
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
GYRO at almost $80 today. waiting for news or realization of my price target before i sell.
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
9 years ago
r1, link
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
Anyone know what amount is good to start day trading? I keep hearing 3K on the internet is good to start out with.
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
Personally I'm strongly opposed to retail investors day trading... you have no advantage versus other market participants. In fact, you have a strong disadvantage. Your transaction costs are much higher than the "smart money" out there and you can't react to information with anything close to the same speed as an algorithm getting a direct newswire.

But I'm not a very reliable source of information on this matter - I'm a corporate finance guy.
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
9 years ago
link
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
What about forex?
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
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nestor
nestor
Not sure. I don't know much about the real-world forex market, just what I learned in school.
nny's avatar
9 years ago
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nny
M̮͈̣̙̰̝̃̿̎̍ͬa͉̭̥͓ț̘ͯ̈́t̬̻͖̰̞͎ͤ̇ ̈̚J̹͎̿̾ȏ̞̫͈y̭̺ͭc̦̹̟̦̭̫͊̿ͩeͥ̌̾̓ͨ
forex is terrible. it's a super volatile market.
lucas's avatar
9 years ago
link
lucas
i ❤ demo
as an economist, i share nestor's views.
nny's avatar
9 years ago
link
nny
M̮͈̣̙̰̝̃̿̎̍ͬa͉̭̥͓ț̘ͯ̈́t̬̻͖̰̞͎ͤ̇ ̈̚J̹͎̿̾ȏ̞̫͈y̭̺ͭc̦̹̟̦̭̫͊̿ͩeͥ̌̾̓ͨ
I worked for an online forex exchange for a while.

I will say this. Guys with some seriously advanced degrees, and a hell of a lot of free time have tried to model the market there and have done so in vain. That market isn't predictable in any way and is very volatile. In effect it's like the lottery only with slightly better odds.
Carpetsmoker's avatar
9 years ago
link
Carpetsmoker
Martin
Hmm, forex seems like the sort of business with large amounts of money and lots of "poohah" while producing very little concrete results/products ...
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
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nestor
nestor
exited GYRO at $99.00, weighted average cost base of $63.27, for an annualized return of 107%.

looking for new USD ideas!
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
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nestor
nestor
picked up NTDOY (nintendo) at ~$17.60 with proceeds. it looks very, very cheap. big upside is predicated on next console and potential monetization of existing IPs (mario, pokemon, etc.)

next up is probably SALM (salem communications). it owns christian / conservative radio stations. trading at ~35% levered cash flow yield and ~15% unlevered cash flow yield. lots of debt, but has 2x interest coverage. lots of upside with good downside protection. can't say i like the actual business at all...
Carpetsmoker's avatar
9 years ago
link
Carpetsmoker
Martin
> picked up NTDOY (nintendo) at ~$17.60 with proceeds. it looks very, very cheap. big upside is
> predicated on next console and potential monetization of existing IPs (mario, pokemon, etc.)

Yikes! Who are you and what did you do to Nestor!?
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
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nestor
nestor
haha, what is out of character about buying cheap stocks?
Carpetsmoker's avatar
9 years ago
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Carpetsmoker
Martin
You're talking about "monetization" of Mario and Pokemon O.o

Not to mention even *considering* investing in fundamentalist Christian blather :-(
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
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nestor
nestor
i'm amoral when it comes to making money, and i have been for a long time. i've been invested in far, far worse stuff - CXW comes to mind (corrections corp of america - they own and operate prisons).

from a utilitarian perspective, going into the secondary market and purchasing stock doesn't really do much (especially when you're only throwing 5-10k at it). it's not like i'm purchasing stock where the proceeds go directly to the company. i am technically bidding up the price of the stock, which lowers the firm's cost of capital. i also get some weird economic incentives. on the other hand, i don't buy stocks for growth, i buy them because i believe the price is attractive even in a downside scenario for the business.
lucas's avatar
9 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
if the volume is low enough, you won't even bid up the price

in my opinion, capital markets are indeed amoral. consumption is not, however, which is the key to me.
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
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nestor
nestor
you mean if it's high enough, right?
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
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nestor
nestor
and yeah, i agree with consumption
lucas's avatar
9 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
if the volume you buy is low enough, you won't have to bid up the price at all. (i.e., the last seller is willing to sell an additional epsilon shares for the same price.) i could easily be wrong.
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
that's right. i thought you meant volume in the sense of liquidity in the market, not in the sense of the bid size.
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
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nestor
nestor
there are a bunch of radio equities that have similarly huge debt levels and refinanced on unattractive terms during the crisis - EMMS is another one. these ones need more work to evaluate than some of the other names i've given like NTDOY.

you're basically buying into a LBO-like structure where they're using free cash flow to repay the debt, so you need to have good confidence that the cash flow will repay all of the outstanding debt by maturity or they will be able to refinance it attractively at some point.

i think there's good upside in a neutral-growth scenario, but the issue is evaluating the downside...
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
choppy day in the market!

doubled down on my mining drillers, EGD and GEO.

also took a 3.75% position in each of SALM and EMMS.
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
i ended up tripling my position in SALM a couple days after.

it traded up 30% today after management presented the case for undervaluation at an investor conference. my model indicates intrinsic value in the $5.50 - $7.00 range (conservative estimates).
lucas's avatar
9 years ago
link
lucas
i ❤ demo
this graph amazes me.

what's the highest low-risk return, right now?
lucas's avatar
9 years ago
r2, link
lucas
i ❤ demo
thoughts on fpa crescent ?
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
the tsx is heavily weighted towards financials and oil & gas (to a lesser extent gold mining), which the credit crisis really crushed.

unfortunately i don't have any additional great ideas after salem ran up, it is still attractively prices around $4 but the conservative upside isn't as good and there's some downside risk (whereas previously it was trading at absurdly low levels by any metric).

from a macro perspective, there are lots of high quality property & casualty insurers with good earnings power that are very undervalued. friend of mine suggested endurance specialty holdings and arch capital, i haven't done any research on these names.

north american natural gas players (as long as they are unlevered / have low embedded financial risk) are also an interesting idea, as in the next few years (5+) i expect the differential between north american prices ($1-2 / mmbtu) will converge with asian prices (something insane like $18 / mmbtu) as infrastructure is put in place.
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
exited NTDOY in the mid-18s... i wouldn't normally exit so quickly, but i found an interesting longer-term opportunity that i'm more confident about (on downside and upside).

FTP (TSX), fortress paper. operates in a very niche market - security paper (for banknotes) and dissolving pulp (highly processed cellulose, essentially a cotton substitute). they hit around the 25% percentile mark on cost structure so they are well-insulated against a downturn in the market. they are fairly unlevered as well which gives them good flexibility. management has a wicked capital allocation history, for example buying old traditional pulp mills for cheap cheap prices and converting them to dissolving pulp mills. just in january they bought an old NBSK mill from domtar for $1 million, picked up a big loan from the government, and will spend $200 million in capex to get $80-100 million in EBITDA in a couple years - an outstanding return on equity. management owns ~20% of the equity and has a history of delivering on these conversion projects (conversion is a very difficult process and there are only a handful of people who have done it successfully, FTP has hired an experienced team). most importantly management has no illusions about riding the cycle and selling at an attractive exit point. they are not sold on the segment forever, but only are in this for the opportunity to crank out some great returns and get rich.
Carpetsmoker's avatar
9 years ago
link
Carpetsmoker
Martin
I have no idea what you just said.
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
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nestor
nestor
i hope you stick to index investing!
lucas's avatar
9 years ago
r1, link
lucas
i ❤ demo
oh man. i'll post again when i don't have ph.d. finals looming
lucas's avatar
9 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
nestor: i'm not comfortable with buying individual securities. it's not my money, the horizon is 5 years, but it needs to remain somewhat liquid (and stable in market value) in case of an emergency.

consequently, i'm looking at conservative mutual funds. is that reasonable?
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
lr,

in short, yes.

the reason why i am currently buying individual securities is because i have:

a) extensive training and experience in corporate finance and valuation to support analysis required in a value investing approach (which i believe is the only method to consistently achieve excess risk-adjusted returns relative to benchmarks)

b) time to do the required analysis

c) enough personal liquidity (40% of liquid assets) and available credit (bank lines and family) to support me in the event of emergency without requiring the sale of portfolio (worst case being forced to sell undervalued securities)

d) flexible time horizon (5+ years to realize intrinsic value).

if by "not your own money", you mean that you have significant liabilities (e.g. loans), then yes, i would probably stick to investing in USD investment-grade debt via mutual funds or ETFs. i know very little about those investment products, but i'd expect you'd be able to find some that have regular cash distributions. i would look into ETFs for low fees and lack of "active management".
lucas's avatar
9 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
i mean that the money is being held in trust.

alright, thanks!
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
just to be clear, you are the trustee, not the beneficiary?
lucas's avatar
9 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
i'm the trustee, yeah.
lucas's avatar
9 years ago
r4, link
lucas
i ❤ demo
is there any reason to prefer IVE or EZY or VTV? EZY looks comparatively volatile.

considering i want low-risk, i should stick to a value large-cap ETF, right? i'm guessing that's the most stable. large-cap growth is taking off right now, but of course that's inherently riskier, yeah?

fidelity offers commission-free ishares ETF trades (e.g., IVE).
e-trade offers commission-free wisdomtree ETF trades (e.g., EZY).
scottrade offers commission-free focus morningstar ETF trades (no large-cap value ETF available).
td ameritrade offers commission-free ishares and vanguard ETF trades (e.g., IVE, VTV).
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
i wasn't recommending equity ETF, i was suggesting investment-grade debt ETFs. much less volatile.

all that said you should look into your legal risk around this arrangement, you may not even be able to put money into anything like this and only go money market funds.
lucas's avatar
9 years ago
link
lucas
i ❤ demo
ok, so something more like LQD (BBB+f), QLTA (A-f), or GBF (A-f)?
nestor's avatar
9 years ago
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nestor
nestor
yeah, exactly. you'd need to look at how the etf actually works (i.e. whether it distributes funds or just reinvests coupons), and how that would affect taxability.
lucas's avatar
9 years ago
r1, link
lucas
i ❤ demo
alright, swell. thanks. i'm not terribly concerned about taxes in that way, because it's not a legal trust. it's more of a implied family trust (for tax reasons). i'm so sick of researching it, too. i'm too busy with school work to pretend to be both a financial advisor and a financial advisor's client.
lucas's avatar
8 years ago
link
lucas
i ❤ demo
alright, well this will be a good learning experience for me! i haven't traded at all since i was a teenager.
nestor's avatar
8 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
it's good learning and if you put time and thought into it, it can be really rewarding. it's all about finding the investing style that you can get into. i think value investing is by far the most intellectually rewarding one, because you're always in this struggle to grasp the value of a security / a business that you generally only interact with by reading about it and doing a little math.

on that note, i'm out of SALM with a 80% cash return (ridiculous on an annualized basis). it rapidly moved up to where i thought a conservative trading value would be so i decided to take my profits and not wait around. i originally expected it wouldn't trade up until it refinanced in late 2013.

to me the SALM story is all about how there are lots of businesses that the "market" hates and there are great opportunities if you're patient with your review and get really comfortable with the story. in this case it was pretty case to crack with a basic cash flow model. anything with a 30% cash flow yield on the equity gets me excited... let alone a business as (near-term) stable as christian/conservative radio.
asemisldkfj's avatar
8 years ago
link
asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
I should get into this.
asemisldkfj's avatar
8 years ago
link
asemisldkfj
the law is no protection
$$$
nestor's avatar
8 years ago
r1, link
nestor
nestor
some serious paper losses in the last couple days. not overly concerned - just hard to look away. i've been adding to all positions as they have fallen ~20% since last week. holding about 60% cash.
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
8 years ago
link
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
FB below 30. Damn.
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
8 years ago
link
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
I recently acquired 30000 in my Roth IRA. Now I am with Fidelity and I am clueless as to what to buy. Typically my 401k was based off of a fund that matched my retirement date. However, I want to take a more active role in where my money is going, and this is the first time I have significant funds.

Any advice?
nny's avatar
8 years ago
link
nny
M̮͈̣̙̰̝̃̿̎̍ͬa͉̭̥͓ț̘ͯ̈́t̬̻͖̰̞͎ͤ̇ ̈̚J̹͎̿̾ȏ̞̫͈y̭̺ͭc̦̹̟̦̭̫͊̿ͩeͥ̌̾̓ͨ
Buy a small town in south america. Take over the police and drug trade. You'll need some trustworthy locals though.
DaGr8Gatzby's avatar
8 years ago
link
DaGr8Gatzby
Drunk by Myself
Shoot I got my own crew. nny, build me some tesla coils.
lucas's avatar
7 years ago
link
lucas
i ❤ demo
looks like corporate debt is really taking off now. for example, junk bond etf hyg is at the 5-year high and investment-grade bond etf lqd has been making good progress lately.

any insight, nestor?
nestor's avatar
6 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
not really my area of expertise, but i would underweight HY relative to benchmark if your time horizon is beyond 2 years. under almost no circumstances would i overweight it. IG is ok.

i'm off to Omaha, NE tomorrow to attend the berkshire hathaway annual general meeting on saturday.
lucas's avatar
6 years ago
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lucas
i ❤ demo
cool!
lucas's avatar
6 years ago
r1, link
lucas
i ❤ demo
both my bond ETFs hit my price limits on friday!

08/15/2014	YOU SOLD
 	LQD	ISHARES IBOXX INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORAT
Cash	Shares: -20.000	Price: $120.00	Amount: $2,399.94
 	Fees: $0.06	
Settlement Date: 08/20/2014
08/15/2014	YOU SOLD
 	TIP	ISHARES TIPS BOND ETF
Cash	Shares: -20.000	Price: $116.00	Amount: $2,319.94
 	Fees: $0.06	
Settlement Date: 08/20/2014


(that's just a partial sale. i still hold much more of both funds.)
nestor's avatar
6 years ago
link
nestor
nestor
those trading costs are hot